What the Oilers and Jets should do about their 2022 performance conundrums

The Edmonton Oilers and Winnipeg Jets have found themselves in similar territory of late. Both teams have endured challenging, long runs of losing this season that have resulted in the usual Canadian hockey market media circus, and both teams have had recent spurts that would accurately represent their cities this time of year – cold.

Though the way each roster has been constructed to this point has been entirely different.

Since relocating in 2011 to Winnipeg, the Jets have been somewhat of a model franchise in employing a draft and development style. General Manager Kevin Chevyldayoff was steeped in the riches of the Chicago Blackhawks draft and development era from 2006-2010 which culminated in their first Stanley Cup in 2010, and has successfully applied some of those principles to the Jets.

He came to Winnipeg with a plan and, for the most part, has executed that strategy flawlessly. The team is loaded with talent despite only one top 3 pick in their existence (Laine 2nd overall in 2016), and have found talent through all rounds of the draft. Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Nik Ehlers, Josh Morrissey, Cole Perfetti and Jacob Troba – who was traded for Neal Pionk and the 2019 20th overall pick, Ville Heinola – represent a nice drafting record from the 7-20 range in the draft.

Outside the first round the Jets have also fared well, finding Connor Hellebuyck in the 5th round, Andrew Copp in the 4th round, and Adam Lowry in the 3rd round. Mason Appleton was also a nice 5th round selection, though he’s fallen off a cliff since the Kraken nabbed him in the expansion draft.

The Oilers, on the other hand, have sparsely had success past the first round since drafting Taylor Hall 1st overall in 2010 and selecting first at the draft four times over the span of six years from 2010-2015. Jujhar Khaira and Tyler Pitlick represent their minimal post-first round draft success, and if you follow hockey, you can tell that is quite an underwhelming list of players. That being said, both Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones were unearthed in the 4th and 5th rounds of the 2015 draft, and they highlight exactly how powerful turning those draft picks into tangible NHL assets are.

Jones was flipped for Duncan Keith to give the Oil a veteran, puck moving presence, and Bear turned into Warren Foegele, finally giving the Oilers some bottom 6 depth that isn’t Tobias Rieder, who really needed to score 10 goals in 2019 but fell 10 short of that mark. I wonder what those goals could have done for this franchise.

The Oilers have been showing some improvement of late with their drafting, though it still has yet to truly show up beyond pick #32 in the draft. But Stuart Skinner was a 3rd rounder from 2017 and he represents some hope between the pipes, Ryan McLeod is a 2nd rounder from 2018 who has been showing up well of late, and 2016 2nd rounder Tyler Benson has earned a full time NHL role this year, though it appears unlikely his three year point-per-game AHL career will translate into meaningful offence at the NHL level. He’s still only 23, but one point in 19 games isn’t the most encouraging stat line. Hey, ya gotta start somewhere.

All of that adds to the emergence of 2018 10th overall pick Evan Bouchard as a top defender, who is playing over 21 minutes per night, and Philip Broberg, who is up to 17 points in 25 games as a 21 year old defender in the AHL. Broberg won’t be a star at the NHL level, but the 2019 8th overall selection has excellent athletic tools and will be a good NHL defenseman and probably a top 4 contributor in time.

So here we are. The Oilers are 8th in the conference based on points percentage. The Jets are 13th based on points percentage.

The Oilers struck it rich with the most electric player hockey has ever seen (though I did tear up bantam house hockey in my day), and supplemented him with Leon Draisatl, who is already the best German hockey player to ever live. Though Dany Heatley was born in West Germany. Just sayin.

On the contrary, the Jets have slowly and steadily assembled this team from the ground up, and despite doing well to navigate the challenges of both Trouba and Laine’s desire to work elsewhere, they have built a deep forward group, retooled their defense on the fly, and have a goaltender who is just two years removed from winning the Vezina.

So… what to think? What to do?

We’ll answer those questions for both teams.

Oilers need to stay slow n steady

I get the whole narrative of “oMg ur wAsTinG McDaViD’s pRimE”. I do. Especially since Sidney Crosby and the Penguins won so quickly after drafting the post-lockout’s official poster boy. But, in the same way that Vegas set up unrealistic expectations for Seattle by having a ridiculously successful expansion process, Crosby’s Penguins may have done the same for Edmonton when it comes to the timeline of success after drafting a generational talent in the modern era. You need a really fucking good team to win the Cup. Which Edmonton does not have.

And let’s be real. Former Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli was hired to “capitalise on his prime” and start moving the team toward playoff success. His rashness and inability to build an actual real franchise led to some really boneheaded moves that have set the franchise back ridiculously far. Namely Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson, which needs no commentary, and trading the 2015 16th overall pick and 33rd overall picks for 21 year old defenseman Griffin Reinhart, who played 27 games for the Oilers. He currently plays in the British Elite Ice Hockey League, though the term “Elite” in that title must surely be relative.

Consequently, the Islanders selected Matt Barzal with that first rounder, and traded the second rounder to move up in the draft and select Anthony Beauvillier at 27th overall.

That’s Taylor Hall, and two top 35 picks in one of the deepest recent drafts for a top 4 shutdown defender and 27 games of a journeyman, non-NHL defenseman. Oh, and he also moved Jordan Eberle for current 60 point center/right wing Ryan Strome, but traded him for pennies on the dollar for Ryan Spooner. Basically Jordan Eberle (who is still a useful top six winger) eventually turned into Spooner, who is far from being the player Eberle ever was. Yikes. In my opinion, those three moves are the most significant reasons the Oilers are where they are right now. It is absolutely brutal asset management. Especially given the fact those two draft picks they moved would be about 25 years old right now and at the perfect age to help the Oilers ascend the standings.

But at least he was trying to capitalise on McDavid’s prime, right?

So I very much commend general manager Ken Holland for staying steady and not making any panic moves during the Oilers’ treacherous, pissy 13 game stretch through December and January where they only managed two wins. Canadian fans, and the media in general, are ruthless and always seem to have the answers. Which generally leads to incredible unrest and very impatient demands suggesting you fix things NOW. Usually, that means firing the coach or the GM or making a rash of trades. All of which are way easier said than done.

So let’s just remember that the Lightning drafted Victor Hedman and Steven Stamkos in 2008 and 2009, respectively, and won their first Cup with them in 2020. That’s eleven years. Eleven years without a single “we need to capitalise on these players”. Yes, they found the playoffs quicker and with greater consistency than the Oilers, but that’s still eleven years of building and improving your franchise one step at a time, which is what leads you to success in this salary cap, parity driven hockey world.

And the Oilers are not just one step away from the Cup. They should not be spending first round picks to acquire Barclay Goodrows or Blake Colemans. They need to continue building intelligently and methodically, until there’s so much depth throughout the organization that it’s obvious to start moving multiple unproven assets (prospects and draft picks) for a singular NHL talent, such as a starting goaltender or top 4 defenseman.

And I know as fans we all love the trade deadline and the thrill of trades and rentals and the allure of slingin’ draft picks like tequila on a Thirsty Thursday. But the Oilers have already been rewarded for their patience, and have already made what is likely the best trade deadline acquisition.

And that’s Evander Kane.

Holland is extremely lucky to have been able to add a top line winger to his team for zero assets, and, dressing room and ego and all of that noise aside, it bolsters the talent and depth of this team in a big way. The Oilers finally have 6 real top six forwards for the first time in the McDavid era (Jesus, Drai, Nuge, Kane, Hyman, Pulji), and, no matter how long Kane stays or how this experiment ends up, it was most certainly a worthy gamble.

A player of that caliber as a deadline rental would normally cost a 1st, a 3rd, and maybe a good prospect. In this case, the cost exists in the form of attitude and selfishness that is very difficult to quantify into hockey terms, and all we can do is see how it plays out. But Evander’s 152 points over his last 195 games is very easy to quantify in hockey terms because they are literally numbers. And good ones, at that.

So look, I know no one likes patience. It’s boring. It’s anti-climatic. And it requires years to play out.

But the Oilers did well in avoiding firing Dave Tippett and hiring their 57th new coach in the last decade. They also need to avoid overpaying for a goaltending solution this season. If a reasonable option for this year is available for a price that isn’t outrageous, Holland certainly should do that. That’s the obvious hole. But it’s also worth noting that Stuart Skinner is 23, is at worst a decent NHL goaltender, and the Oil should be looking to move forward next year with Skinner and a goaltender acquired in the off season. But for this year, this team is not worth sacrificing any tangible futures for.

I think the Oilers are soon nearing a point where it will make sense to package futures, but no earlier than next year. Holland has been insistent on keeping his 1st round pick this year, and I agree with that. Philip Broberg can eventually be traded in a package at some point – given Nurse, Bouchard, Barrie, and (for some reason) Ceci are all Oilers property for the foreseeable future. They also have Duncan Keith for one more year.

And finally, 2020 first rounder Dylan Holloway has looked very good every time I’ve seen him. He has had unfortunate injury problems since being drafted 15th overall, but he absolutely torched college hockey last season, with 11 goals and 35 points in just 24 games. He had a major injury before the season started, which put a halt to the beginning of his professional career, but he has since returned to action and is off to a nice start with a goal and 5 points in his first 6 games of AHL action.

Holloway is a supreme athlete – he’s 6’1 and 200 pounds – and skates like the wind. Those types of players can dominate lower levels and find it much more challenging to impose their will at the pro level, so Holloway will have plenty to prove whenever he gets the call up. But the talent is there, and at worst, his floor is a bottom 6 NHLer.

That being said, it’s the prospect of both Holloway and Broberg becoming full time NHL contributors for 2022-23 that represents the exact type of incremental improvement this franchise needs to make. Both players have top6/top4 potential, and it’s up to the Oilers and the players themselves to get the most out of it.

So what about those Jets?

The Jets, on the other hand, have no prime McDavid to waste, but rather, have a prime Connor Hellebuyck whose clock is slowly ticking. A 5th round pick in 2012, Hellebuyck is without a doubt the best draft pick this team has ever made, finding a Vezina caliber ‘tender with the 130th selection. Goalies are often the hardest – and most critical – piece to any Stanley Cup puzzle, and acquiring one who is among the best in the league for an extended stretch will jolt any franchise up the standings.

Oddly enough, after the Jets had two challenging years replacing a massive, 6’6, 250 pound Dustin Byfuglien sized void, Hellebuyck has been mediocre this season despite having – what should be anyway – the best team (or at least defence) in front of him in a few years.

Pierre-Luc Dubois has rebounded exceptionally from his challenging North Division season, Kyle Connor is one of the best goal scorers in the NHL, and the Jets have quality depth in the form of Paul Stastny, Andrew Copp, and Adam Lowry. Oh, and Cole Perfetti has looked pretty darn good of late too.

Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele don’t appear to be playing to their lofty standards set from 2016-18, but I can bet most teams would thrilled to have players of their caliber on their rosters. Just maybe not with the price of Wheeler’s $8.25 million cap hit.

On the backend, I totally commended general manager Kevin Chevyldayoff’s offseason where he acquired Nate Schmidt and Brendan Dillon. I was immediately hesitant to love the Schmidt acquisition – just based on a four year commitment and a nearly $6 million cap hit – but for just a 3rd round pick, it seemed like a reasonable way to add a top 4 defenseman to the stable, which we were desperate for. Dillon, however, I was much more enthused about given our need for some grit in our top 6. But not Derek Forbort or Nathan Beaulieu type grit. I prefer the type of grit that can also make a first pass and operate a hockey stick, which Dillon can do.

And this is where the Jets season and performance becomes entirely perplexing to me.

I was very willing to give the Jets a pass for the last 2 years, because Byfuglien totally threw this franchise for a loop when the best defenseman its ever had decided not to honour the final 2 years of his contract. When teams have top tier, offensive defensemen who are capable of physically dominating a game leave, teams tend to suffer deeply. Think Chris Pronger leaving Edmonton and being unable to continue for Philly, Shea Weber being unable to play for the Canadiens this year, or even Alex Pietrangelo leaving St. Louis.

High quality 25 minute defencemen have a massive impact on a hockey game, and Byfuglien’s absence has become more and more obvious with each day of mediocrity this franchise endures.

With that being said, this is the best team the Jets have had since Byfuglien left. Compare the 6 defensemen who have received the most ice time from the 2019 season – immediately after Buff left – and this year:

Jets top 6 defencemen for 2019-20	Jets top 6 defencemen for 2021-22 season
Josh Morrissey	Josh Morrissey
Neal Pionk	Neal Pionk
Tucker Poolman	Brendan Dillon
Anthony Bitetto	Nate Schmidt
Dmitri Kulikov	Dylan De Melo
Luca Sbisa	Logan Stanley

And compare the 9 forwards who have played the most ice time:

Jets top 9 forwards for 2019-20	Jets top 9 forward for 2021-22
Mark Scheifele	Mark Scheifele
Kyle Connor	Kyle Connor
Blake Wheeler	Blake Wheeler
Nik Ehlers	Nik Ehlers
Patrik Laine	Pierre-Luc Dubois
Andrew Copp	Andrew Copp
Adam Lowry	Adam Lowry
Jack Roslovic	Paul Stastny
Mathieu Perreault	Jansen Harkins

From my point of view, the forwards are nearly interchangeable – I’d argue that this year’s forwards are better with the exchange of Laine for Dubios – given we’ve had plenty of talented wingers but no 2C for a while. That trade used our embarrassment of winger riches to plug a massive hole at center.

But those defensemen should be worlds better from the 2019 season. Bitetto? Poolman? Sbisa? Yikes.

That 2019-20 team played to a .563 points percentage. The 2020-21 North Division team played to a .563 points percentage. Yet, here we are halfway through the season, and the Jets are plugging along at a .512 points percentage and supremely mediocre 18-17-7 record.

Typically, it’s about a .570 points percentage that is enough to cement you in for a wild card spot. And the Jets just aren’t there, and don’t appear to be gaining traction any time soon.

That being said, I do think the youthful injection of Perfetti and Heinola are good for the team. But missing Nik Ehlers for an extended period of time is really throwing this team for a loop, and they’ll be thrilled when he returns to action. Ehlers-Scheif-Wheeler along with Connor-Dubois-Perfetti seems like a pretty darned vicious two headed monster. That would leave a Copp-Lowry-Stastny third line which is a nice combination of two way play and attacking ability.

And so that leaves us with the big question:

With the trade deadline coming up, and an underperforming team, what should the Jets do?

The answer to this isn’t simple. The Jets have done an outstanding job of constructing a deep roster with high end talent, especially given the fact they are not a prime free agent destination. But this is the first time in my existence as a Jets fan that I’m questioning this group. I did think adding two perceived top four defensemen in the summer would elevate the Jets right back to a top 10 team.

But roster surgery isn’t very easy to do. Scheifele has been the most obvious underperformer this season and his defensive lapses are really starting to add up, but at a $6.1 million cap hit and his elite 5 year track record, I’m absolutely giving him a chance to rebound next year. Or, even better, have him pick up his play over the remaining 40 games of the season.

Blake Wheeler obviously is past his 90 point days, and for $8.25 million he represents the classic tale of being paid for what he’s done, not what he’s doing. That being said, Wheeler was on a tear before he got hurt in December, and I do believe he can get back to a standard that justifies his usage as an 18+ minutes per night forward. And let’s be real, even if Chevy wanted to move him, no one is taking on that cap hit for a 35 year old forward. Wheeler also has some a modified no trade clause for the final two seasons, which only contributes to the high probability that he will finish his career a Jet. No matter what the fans want.

Kyle Connor and Nik Ehlers are untouchable. So is Pierre-Luc Dubois, and ideally the Jets can sign him to a long term extension this off season.

Andrew Copp and Paul Stastny represent the Jets’ valuable pending UFAs, and it has looked like Copp was always going to test free agency, given the slew of one or two year deals he’s played his Jets career on. If Winnipeg is out of the hunt come deadline time, Chevy would do well in flipping them for assets. If both were traded, ideally one would fetch a 22ish year old depth player with room to grow who can play in the bottom six. If just Copp goes, a 2nd rounder and a lower tier prospect would make sense (maaaaaybe a first?), while Stastny should be able to get a 3rd rounder. That being said, teams love veteran two-way centers, so maybe he could get a 2nd.

On the back end is where things get interesting. Winnipeg is committed to five defensemen for not just next year, but the year after too. That’s Morrissey, Pionk, Schmidt, Dillon, and De Melo, totaling roughly $25 million in cap space. The Jets have plenty of young defensemen knocking at the door, and I think it would be wise to give them a chance to develop, and make room for them for cap purposes. Ville Heinola and Dylan Samberg will provide plenty of value on their entry level contracts and their follow up deals.

So, for me, if the Jets are in the hunt come deadline day, stand pat. I don’t think this group is worth adding to, but I also don’t consider it the end of the world if both Copp and Stastny play out their contracts. Ideally, at least one is flipped, but I’d be okay with both staying. I certainly understand the concept of getting value on pending UFAs, but if this group can earn (and there’s lots of work to do) a chance to compete for the post season, they should take it. Once you’re in the dance, anything can happen. Especially with Hellebuyck guarding the twine.

If the Jets are out of the race come deadline day, both Stastny and Copp should be traded. Winnipeg generally has done well finding bottom 6 depth, and has a good prospect pool to work with. Their versatility would be missed, but the Jets will be okay.

In my perfect world, Nate Schmidt is traded, but his $5.95 cap for 4 more years is likely a deterrent, and if it were to happen, it would probably be an off season deal. I don’t mind Schmidt, but Morrissey and Pionk are going nowhere, De Melo is a valuable right handed shot, and Dillon provides the backend with some sandpaper it doesn’t have a ton of. Which leaves us with Nate Dogg.

Ultimately, the Jets should not overreact to this season, which has been completely disappointing to this point. It’s possible Schmidt and Dillon settle in further next year, and get back to their previous levels of play. And this core has played lots of good hockey over the last 5 years; this season could just be a blip on the radar. But, for the first time ever, it is time to give this team the deep, no stones unturned look that the Calgary Flames seemingly need every off season.

If there is a fundamental flaw in the Jets, Chevy needs to start finding out what that is. Because on paper, this team should be good. And based on recent track record, they have been good, and could (should?) be elite.

But they’re not. And – barring an outstanding 40 game finish to this campaign – this off season will prompt some very difficult questions about this core that Chevy has spent a decade assembling.