The Ottawa Senators rebuild looks good, but is nearing its critical point

Rebuilding, retooling, revamping, whatever you wanna call it, I find the Ottawa Senators one of the most fascinating scenarios in the NHL. We’ve seen a few teams launch into another stratosphere immediately with high draft picks (Pittsburgh, Chicago), we’ve seen a few other teams get the high picks but require some time to emerge victorious with ‘em (Tampa Bay comes to mind), and of course some teams never leave the rebuild phase and have to start all over again. Sorry Buffalo, that’s you.

The Ottawa Senators – for all the negative PR they’ve received in the last 5 years – have been sailing in rebuilding waters for quite some time now. Unexpectedly, after a run to the Conference Finals in 2017, the Senators completely plummeted the following season and were the brunt of every NHL joke when they traded their first rounder for Matt Duchene and finished at the bottom of the league, leaving the powerhouse Avalanche to select Bowen Byram at 4th overall with their draft pick. Not exactly a textbook rebuild.

Things have been looking up for the Sens though, and they somehow managed to break even on that disastrous first round trade by swindling a lottery pick out of San Jose in the package they got for Erik Karlsson, which translated to Tim Stutzle. They’ve accumulated a solid base of young talent to build from, and have a second wave of prospects ready to soon make the jump. The Binghamton Senators have graduated a few players of late, and it’s now time to see what the Sens are made of.

To be clear, there is plenty of work to do, as their 13-21-4 record suggests. Ottawa was completely outmatched in the North Division early on last season, but were able to find their footing as the season progressed. They’ve come out basically in the same way as last year this season, and at this point can only hope for a half-season of maturity to make a difference at game 42.

With ALL that being said, the Senators look like they’ve got an excellent nucleus. Drake Batherson, Josh Norris, Brady Tkachuk, and Thomas Chabot are already top-6 players, and are knockin’ on the door for the title of top liner. Tim Stutzle has an electric skill set and should be able to convert that into excellent point totals in due time. Artem Zub has emerged as a useful piece of the core, joining veteran Connor Brown and Nick Paul as solid non under-24 options.

For the next wave, 2020 5th overall pick Jake Sanderson is having an exceptional season with North Dakota (21gp, 7g, 24pts) and just might have been the correct choice over Anaheim defenseman Jamie Drysdale, who went one pick later. Jacob Bernard-Docker is another defenseman in the stable for the Sens, who is now working on his game in the AHL after three years of successful college hockey. Continuing with the college theme, Shane Pinto represents good late first round value, as the 32nd pick from 2019 ripped up college last year and had made the big squad before an injury knocked him out after 5 games. Ottawa seems pretty high on his progress and potential, though.

One of the biggest boosts the Senators gave themselves was from that 2017 draft. Having just made the conference finals against the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Senators had no idea of the incoming half-decade of futility. Luckily, with only four picks in that 2017 draft, the Sens added two useful pieces, the aforementioned Drake Batherson in the 4th round, 121st overall, and Alex Formenton in the 2nd round at 47th overall. Batherson is already a huge piece for the franchise, and Formenton is slowly coming into his own. It’ll remain to be seen whether he can become a top-6 forward, but he’s a good skater with a 6’2 frame and I like his toolkit. At worst, he looks like a capable contributor, and has skated over 16 minutes in two of his last 3 games. Seems like head coach DJ Smith is willing to give him a shot.

The Senators will certainly be looking to escape the bottom of the NHL standings in due time. And, though it’s early, their 2020 draft looks to be a pivotal draft for the franchise, given that they had two top five picks – Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson – and may have hit with their other first rounder, Ridly Greig at 28th overall. Greig had made Canada’s talented 2022 world junior team, but didn’t get a chance to play more than two games. A the WHL level though, he has been dominant this season for the Brandon Wheat Kings. The 6′ forward has 18 goals and 35 points in just 23 games, cruising just below a goal and an assist per game rate. I haven’t seen him play, and I’m not sure his offensive tools will translate to the NHL level, but that’s the type of stat line that makes people take notice. He’ll be interesting to keep tabs on over the next few years.

Senators did well with Erik Karlsson trade, alright on Stone trade

Of course, you can’t talk about the Senators rebuild without revisiting the team’s acknowledgement it was time to reboot things – signaled by the trading of franchise cornerstones Erik Karlsson in September 2018 – just a year after their 2017 playoff run – and Mark Stone at the trade deadline of 2019.

The returns from each player were very, very different.

First off, Karlsson was traded in the off-season, giving the Sharks a full year of his services and thus increasing his trade value. Vegas potentially only acquired Stone for the end of the regular season and playoff run, but he was eventually signed to an 8 year extension.

Ottawa did what they could with Stone, acquiring 2017 first rounder Erik Brannstrom from Vegas, along with Oscar Lindberg and a 2nd round pick in the 2020 draft, with whom they selected Egor Sokolov. Lindberg is now in the KHL, but Sokolov might have a shot at becoming a contributing NHL player. After torching the QMJHL in 2019-20 for 46 goals and 46 assists in just 52 games, he’s put up meaningful numbers in the AHL, producing 25 points in 35 games last year, and 21 points through 27 games in this year. He’s a big, 6’3, 220 pound player who likes to play his off-wing, and you’ve got to imagine that General Manager Pierre Dorion has time for players like this all day long, though there is still plenty of work to do for the young Russian.

Brannstrom, on the other hand, has been hard to get a handle on. I watched him a lot at the 2019 World Juniors and was totally impressed. He has impressive puck skills and offensive zone ability, but as with any 5’9 defenseman, he has a lot to prove in the defensive zone. Can he shove those big 6’3 forwards out of the way?

Using data from HockeyViz, Brannstrom was equal to his teammates in creating offense, matching his team’s 2.41 xGF/60, with or without him on the ice, but there was some give on the defensive side. Without Brannstrom, the team allows 2.6 xGA/60, and 2.77 xGA/60 with him on the ice. Not a massive give, but there’s something there. He’s still just 22 years old, and I’m sure the Senators will continue to give him every opportunity he needs to succeed. Personally, I’m staying patient with the guy for another few years and would be very curious what a full, 80 game NHL season would do for his development. The talent is undoubtedly there, and I still think there’s top-4 upside.

The Erik Karlsson trade, however, has completely accelerated the Senators rebuild. I am 100% certain they hated trading a player of his caliber and would have preferred for him to stick around. He was their captain, after all. But the return, which wasn’t bad at the time of the trade, has emerged as absolutely massive.

The Senators acquired 4 useful pieces from that trade, including Dylan DeMelo, Chris Tierney, Josh Norris, and a conditional first rounder from 2020 that they used to select Tim Stutzle.

DeMelo was a good top four defenseman for two years for them, and was eventually flipped to Winnipeg for a 3rd rounder. Ho hum. But Chris Tierney has emerged as a solid third line center for the young Sens, though his offensive ability has completely fallen off a cliff of late. Snagging Tim Stutzle with San Jose’s 3rd overall pick is something no one would have predicted, and is what has really made this trade so massive for the Sens. The Sharks had just been to the Western Conference Finals, and were very much expecting to continue to compete. That didn’t happen.

And finally, the most underrated part of the deal is Josh Norris. I’m sure the Senators were expecting San Jose’s first rounder to be in the 20s, so at the time, Norris was the centerpiece prospect to the deal. He was selected 19th by the Sharks in the 2017 draft, and had an okay post-draft year as a freshman at the University of Michigan, scoring 23 points in 37 games. It’s a start.

He got traded in September at the very beginning of his sophomore year, though, only playing 17 games and scoring 10 goals and 9 assists for 19 points. Very nice production, but nothing mind blowing and not a large enough sample where you’re like “this kid is a talent”.

But after the trade and when Norris subsequently turned pro, in his draft + 3 season, he quickly raised the bar. In his singular AHL season, he scored 61 points in 56 games, including 31 goals. A point per game in the A is nice, but scoring 30 goals as a 20 year old is what woke me up to his potential as a top line center. And it didn’t take long for him to start finding some offense in last year’s North division. He needed 30 games or so to find his way on that youthful Senators lineup, but when broke out, he broke out in a meaningful, consistent way. He finished the season with 9 goals and 17 points over his final 20 games last season, and has since continued that ascension. Including those final two months last year, the goal scoring center has 27 goals and 43 points over his last 56 games, which is a 40 goal pace over a pretty meaningful chunk of time. To me, it sounds like the Sens have found their top line center.

But ya still need a goaltender

Of course, having a number one center means nothing (I’m looking at you, Edmonton) if you don’t have a capable starting goalie. Goaltending is the last piece of the puzzle for Ottawa, but unfortunately, it may be a few years before any of their prospects materialize into NHL talent.

23 year old ‘tender Filip Gustavsson is their most NHL ready hope, and was acquired from Pittsburgh through a three way deal sent Derick Brassard over to the Penguins back in 2018. He had two good seasons as a 19 and 20 year old in Sweden’s top league, with a .911 and .918 save percentage, respectively, and began his North American pro career as a Senator. In the 3 years of AHL play since, he’s been okay. His stats have been up and down over those 3 years with a very young Binghamton squad, but there’s nothing that suggests he’s a franchise goaltender or locked in to become a quality starter.

At this point I’d say Gustavsson has the potential to be a capable 1B starter, but he’s going to have to prove that first, and the Sens have nothing to lose if they give him a long, extended look. At least he doesn’t have someone making $6 million ahead of him on the depth chart. (or, at least he shouldn’t…)

Finally, 2019 2nd round pick and 6’7 mammoth Mads Sogaard represents their true hope for goaltender of the future. He had two very good seasons with the WHL’s Medicine Hat Tigers before joining Binghamton last year. Since beginning his professional career, the Danish lad has posted 15 wins over 24 starts with a .913 save percentage. It’s early, and he’s only 21, but his stat lines across all levels thus far look good, and justify his selection in the 2nd round.

He certainly has the tools to become a starting goaltender. Where he falls on that scale however, will be determined over the next 3 or 4 years. No doubt the Sens will have a keen an eye on him over the next few years as they determine when it’s best for him to make the jump to the NHL.

Putting five years of drafting all together

Ottawa very clearly is still enduring that difficult process of turning years of failure into actual success. That success comes in three phases:

• acquiring draft picks and top tier young talent
• turning that futility into a meaningful, exciting nucleus with at least seven under 25 players you believe in
• and finally transforming all of that potential into meaningful results

Which is a playoff berth. Or, to at least start flirting with 90 point seasons.

Ottawa is firmly rounding the bend from phase 2 to 3, despite lacking the pivotal 1st or 2nd overall picks that can truly launch a franchise. But they’ve done well with Stutzle, Tkachuk, and Sanderson who were selected 3rd, 4th, and 5th respectively in their drafts. So how does it all look? What does their depth chart look like if comprised only of players that I believe have top-6 or top-4 upside?

Well:

Potential top 6 forwards	Potential top 4 defensemen	Potential starting goalie
Tkachuk – Norris – Batherson	Chabot – Sanderson	Mads Sogaard*
Stutzle – Pinto* – Formenton	Brannstrom – Zub	Filip Gustavsson*
Sokolov* – Greig*	Bernard-Docker* – Thomson*
*denotes player’s potential may drop a tier

I’m a big believer in the nucleus of Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson, and Stutzle. You have an awesome combination of grit (Tkachuk), goal scoring (Norris), overall offensive prowess (Batherson), and game breaking talent (Stutzle). I’ve been a big fan of Formenton since he stood out to me as a 19 year old in a pre-season game, and I think he will be a good top 6 forward in due time, if he isn’t there already.

Chabot and Sanderson represent what should become two top pairing defensemen for the next decade. Brannstrom has talent worth flying on and Zub has been a nice surprise coming over from Russia, though he only has one year remaining on his deal after this season.

Ultimately, 2022-23 has to be considered a pivotal season for the franchise. You’ll have your prized forward, Stutzle, in his 3rd year as a pro. Jake Sanderson should make the jump to NHL hockey and make an immediate impact. Your top forwards will now be far transitioned from “trying to make the show” to being bonafide top 6 or top line NHL talent.

The wildcards will be where their goaltending can take them, how much depth they can surround their nucleus with, and whether they can turn some of their non-blue-chip defensemen prospects into top-6 NHL defensemen.

Ottawa’s rebuild has been fascinating to watch, and the next year will reveal a lot about what this nucleus is made of. I wouldn’t say it’s playoffs or bust – these things take time – but it will certainly be time to start thinking about passing the 80 or 85 point threshold and avoiding picks in the NHL draft lottery.

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