Checking in on the historic 2019 draft class from the US Development Program. What order would they go in now?
After scooping up Matt Boldy in one of my dynasty fantasy leagues, I got looking into the 2019 draft where he was selected 12th overall. This draft was referred to as the “USNDTP” draft, that is, the U.S. National Development Team Program Draft, for the abundance of players they had on that team who were expected to be first round draft picks.
It delivered. The draft saw eight players selected in the first round from that team, two more in the second, and seven more throughout the rest of the draft. That’s 17 players from one hockey team – a ridiculous number.
Of course that draft started with Jack Hughes going 1st overall. But using the great tool of 20/20 hindsight – it’s clear the valuation of these players was already misjudged. And that starts with the Los Angeles Kings selecting Alex Turcotte at 5th overall, deeming him the 2nd best from that group.
They appear to have been very, very wrong.
Trevor Zegras, who went 9th overall to the Anaheim Ducks has clearly surpassed him (and is pushing Hughes at this point – though Hughes has missed plenty of time this season from injury) and the draft order of those players will surely cause debate among scouts and fans alike as this group matures. Here it is:
1st. Jack Hughes – NJD
5th. Alex Turcotte – LAK
9th. Trevor Zegras – ANA
12th. Matt Boldy – MIN
13th. Spencer Knight – FLA
14th. Cam York – PHI
15th. Cole Caufield – MTL
30th. Jon Beecher – BOS
We’ll exclude Beecher from any commentary, as he wasn’t quite in the same stratosphere as the other seven first round picks, and still isn’t.
Zegras and Boldy are the risers, Caufield is the great unknown
To be clear, Jack Hughes was and still is the cream of the crop. His skating is unparalleled by many top NHLers, and has the vision and creativity to make a whole bunch happen. He does have 9 goals in 20 games at the time of writing, but the big thing to watch will be the development of his shot, which is mediocre at best. If
The rest though, are very interesting. Particularly that cluster of choices from 12-15 which will be interesting to watch over the coming years as more and more of this draft finds the NHL and begins to make its mark.
At this point, Alex Turcotte sticks out as a mispick, though he does sit 6th all time for points/game in U.S. Development Program (USDP) history, for players who’ve played at least 30 games. I can see why the Kings wanted him. But it turns out his can’t-stop won’t-stop engine and excellent shot may have caused teams (or just the Kings, who knows) to overvalue him. He’ll definitely still be a good NHL player, but a solid chunk of players in this draft will be better than him.
Cam York seems to be lagging behind the others as well. The jury will still be out for him though, since defenders take a bit longer to make their mark, and I haven’t seen him play in person ever. I also find judging their trajectory just from statistics more difficult than forwards. It’s hard to judge defensive competence, physicality, and the ability to escape from trouble in their own zone just from goals and assists.
Zegras and Caufield had such extraordinary college numbers that they immediately launched themselves ahead of the rest pack in years one and two post-draft. Zegras enjoyed a nice season in college before putting up over a point per game in the AHL and completely dominating the 2020 World Juniors, with 7 goals and 18 points in just 7 games. Caufield, meanwhile, scored 30 goals in 31 games as a college freshman and immediately helped his Montreal Canadiens reach the Stanley Cup Final. His early season struggles have been well documented this season, but the potential on the lad still remains very high.
Spencer Knight has become one of the youngest goaltenders ever to play in the NHL, and is pushing $10 million man Sergei Bobrovsky for starts. The hype for him was high. And it appears to be justified. It will take some time to become above average in the NHL, but his two seasons at Boston College were elite, posting .931 and .932 save percentages, respectively. He was definitely ready for the pro game.
Speaking of Boston College, that brings us to Matt Boldy. Is he closer to Turcotte and York’s projection? Or can he try and keep up with the levels of Hughes, Zegras?
Well, when you look at that 2018-19 USNTDP squad’s top six scorers, you’ll see this arrangement of names:
Sound familiar?
Boldy is right there with Zegras for production, while also scoring more goals. College and AHL numbers matter much more than these U-18 numbers, but it’s interesting that, at 17, he was close to someone who is clearly a top-tier NHL talent at the ripe old age of 20.
Even more encouraging has been Boldy’s performance since he was drafted and left the American program. His second year at Boston College saw him produce nearly 1.5 points per game, amassing 11 goals and 31 points in just 22 games. That is domination. That type of ratio as a sophomore doesn’t just suggest he’s ready to turn pro, it means he has a realistic shot at being a meaningful offensive contributor at the NHL level in time. Even better, he’s followed that up with 24 games in the AHL over the past two years and has accumulated 10 goals and 28 points. It’s always a good sign when a 19 or 20 year old can immediately come into the AHL and perform. To me, it often signals the possibility of being a top line contributor.
Boldy recently earned his first 2 games in the NHL, which I was able to watch. He looks very comfortable, his hands and quick decision making stand out, and I really do believe the Wild have a player here. He might be coming out of the draft a little underrated. Or, I might just be slightly too infatuated. Time will tell.
Cole Caufield is the most mystifying piece of the puzzle. His skill level has never been a question, possessing a great shot and quick hands. He skates well, which always helps smaller forwards, and is a slippery player who can bounce off opponents. He completely torched college hockey in his final season there, amassing 30 goals and 52 points in just 31 games. And there’s no denying the impact he had for Montreal during their unlikely run to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final.
But since, he’s been a bit uneven. Part of that is being a consensus pre-season Calder trophy and coming nowhere near those expectations, and the other part is the complete mess the Canadiens have been this season. Turns out losing a beast like Weber and a brick wall like Price can be hard to deal with – both on the ice and in the locker room.
I remember watching Caufield at the 2021 World Juniors and thought he had electric hands, above average skating and a great shot. I still believe in his talent package, but as with every 5’7 player who puts up big numbers in college or junior, it does need to be proven at the NHL level. Time will tell, and I think patience will be key here for Canadiens fans (or keeper/dynasty league fantasy owners).
And finally, that leaves us with Jack Hughes. Hughes has gone through the completely unfair expectations of being an 18 year old, 1st overall pick in the NHL, and signs of his elite skating and sublime hands are finally starting to emerge on a regular basis. Not everyone can score 72 points as a rookie like Kane, but many players will take 2 or 3 NHL seasons to start figuring things out.
Which is exactly what Hughes seems to be doing. Hughes scored .34 points/game in year 1 from 61 games and followed that up with .55 points per game over 56 games in year 2. And finally, albeit in a smaller game size than we’d place true confidence in, Hughes is chillin’ at the 1.00 points per game mark after 20 games.
He’ll definitely need to prove that over the rest of the season he can maintain it, but Hughes is ready to arrive. I’ll be surprised if he isn’t scoring at least 65-70 points over full seasons from here on out. And it’s possible he finds 85 a few times.
With all of these players being 3 years removed from draft year, now is the time where the steals and misses of the draft can start to emerge. Zegras is a clear steal at number 9, right on Hughes’ tail for the highest ceiling of the draft. And Spencer Knight complicates things too, given that franchise goaltenders are very difficult to find, but typically take far more than 3 years post-draft to fully develop.
With the hindsight of 3 years of development, if I got to re-order these USDP players, I’d select them in this way:
- Jack Hughes
- Trevor Zegras
- Spencer Knight
- Matt Boldy
- Cole Caufield
- Cam York
- Alex Turcotte
Boldy and Caufield are the most interchangeable for me, but for now I’m bettin’ Boldy. Turcotte could surpass York, but I haven’t seen enough of any of them to really be confident with who I think is better.
For what it’s worth, The Athletic’s Corey Pronman ranked every drafted under-23 player (104 entrants) across the game on January 12th, and his order of these players goes like this:
2. Jack Hughes
4. Trevor Zegras
30. Matt Boldy
52. Spencer Knight
70. Cam York
79. Cole Caufield
104. Alex Turcotte
It will be fun to watch how this historic USDP draft class plays out. Maybe it’ll be worth it to check back on the 2nd-7th rounders from this draft it in time too.
What would your order be?
Data from hockeydb.com, eliteprospects.com, and NHL.com.
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