The Colorado Avalanche had one of the worst seasons of the modern era last year, posting 22 wins in 82 games.

Every four games, the Avalanche were confidently expected to lose three, and they even exceeded expectations once in a while – notching losing streaks of nine, six, and five. It was ugly from the start for Colorado, and unfortunately consecutive years of losing top centermen like Ryan O’Reilly and Paul Stastny has made it impossible for them to remain upon the perch they so surprisingly created in 2013.

How does a team rebound from losing top centermen? You just have to find new ones, which is not an easy task. Though not a center, Mikko Rantanen had a promising rookie show, and there should be oodles of untapped MacKinnon potential waiting to be realized.

But for a team sparce on depth everywhere (their only conceivable depth was goaltending and Vegas cut that in half), it will be a period of patience as Avalanche fans search for any reason to remain faithful to their beloved Joe Sakic.

Offensive Rating + Formula

About Current and Potential Ratings

Landeskog 1,1 – MacKinnon F, F+ – Rantanen 1, F+

Wilson 3+, 3+ – Jost 3+, F?? – Duchene 1, 1

Comeau 3, 3 – Soderberg 3+, 3+ – Andrighetto 3+, 3+

Nieto 4, 3 – Colborne 3, 3 – Yakupov 4, 3+

Compher 4, 2

It’s time to admit that perhaps Gabriel Landeskog and Matt Duchene are not franchise players. Capable top line forwards? Absolutely. But for the Avs to make any real progress, they are going to require higher quality depth and better top tier scoring. Tyson Jost is plenty of reason to excite Avalanche fans, and it’s prudent to remember that Nathan MacKinnon scored 64 points as an 18 year old when he had a capable team around him. What could he do if he had a decent team around him as a 24 year old?

Between MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Jost there is serious top notch potential. Rantanen looks like he’ll be able to score at least 30 goals in this league, and I’m even hesitant to state a ceiling for him. He looks like a beast. If Jost can fulfill a top line projection, then the Avs have a whole new core of forwards to build around.

But that’s all a few years away, isn’t it?

2017 Forward Ranking: Weak (25th ranked forward group)

Defense Rating + Formula

About Current and Potential Ratings

Zadorov 2,1 –  Barrie 1, F?

Barberio 3, 3 – Johnson 1, 1

Siemens 3, 3v? – Lindholm 3, 2?

Mironov 3, 2?

The Avalanche discarded Fedor Tyutin (34 years old), Cody Goloubef (27), and Eric Gelinas (26) following last year’s season, presumably with the intention of giving younger talent a chance to prove themselves.

Duncan Siemens and Anton Lindholm are 24 and 23 years of age, and will be looking to assert themselves as National Hockey League players. A top pairing projection is a reach for those two, but the skills are there to contribute in a more meaningful way. With a core of Zadorov, Barrie, and Johnson the Avs have useful pieces, but it remains to be seen if Barrie can become more than an offensive machine.

Given that Colorado is far from win-now mode, 4th overall pick Cale Makar becomes a crucial piece for the future as the team attempts to move on from a devastating season.

2017 Defense Rating: Weak (26th ranked defense group)

Goaltending Rating + Formula

Varlamov 1, 1 – Bernier 2, 2

Much to the dismay of many fans, the Avalanche lost Calvin Pickard to Vegas, weakening perhaps the only position they could have considered themselves deep at. Last year was horrendous for Varlamov, but over the three seasons prior to last he averaged a .920 save percentage. Unfortunately every season his numbers have declined since their 112-point 2013-14 season, but that may be more indicative of the roster in front of him than his own skills.

2017 Goaltender Rating: Weak (28th ranked goaltender)

Intrigue

Though the season was a complete disaster, there is some optimism for Avalanche fans. It’s just… hard to access.

Tyson Jost’s first season of college hockey went so well, however, that he is no longer a college hockey player. He tallied 35 points in 33 games at the University of North Dakota, and stood among the elite when compared to his peers at the World Juniors. Make no mistake about it, he’ll be entering a challenging situation this year. However, the prospect of Jost maturing alongside Rantanen and MacKinnon for the next 5 years should breathe new life for the Avalanche. If Landeskog and Duchene (or whatever trade return he generates) stay in the mix, they would provide high quality talent behind them.

On the defensive side of things, Cale Makar is the return the Avs got for last year’s 230 days of futility. He’s not the first overall pick, but for a team starving of talent in all areas, his skill level should not be ignored. Given that Tyson Barrie is offensively oriented and Erik Johnson pushes the needle toward the defensive side, drafting a defenseman that can play all three zones is massive. It’ll be a crowded right side for Colorado as the seasons move on, but there are worse problems to have.

Like a 48-point season.

5 Most Valuable Assets

Nathan MacKinnon 1, F+?

Mikko Rantanen 2, F+?

Tyson Jost 3+, F??

Cale Makar D, F??

Matt Duchene 1, 1

Top 3 Prospects

Tyson Jost 3+, F??

Cale Makar D, F??

J.T. Compher 4, 2?

Prediction

It will be another season of transition as the Avs continue to look for solutions and a long-term plan that hopefully isn’t as painful as last season.

The Avalanche have some decent young defensemen ready to take the next step, but there will be growing pains. Over the years though, Zadorov, Lindholm, and Mironov could form a solid new core to complement Barrie and Johnson – both signed until 2020 at least.

Should Jost and Rantanen over-perform then Colorado has a group of five forwards (Jost, Rantanen, MacKinnon, Duchene, and Landeskog) that could be considered a strong core. They’ll have to do that though: actually perform.

Offense: Weak (Bottom 10)

Defense: Weak (Bottom 10)

Goaltending: Weak (Bottom 10)

Verdict: 7th in the Central Division