Can the Sabres burst their way out of the playoff bubble?

The Buffalo Sabres undertook a full rebuild starting in 2012, and after 5 years of accumulating, developing, and establishing the next wave of Sabres, it looks like they’re finally rounding the last bend of the rebuild road.

For three straight seasons, 2012-13, 2013-14, and 2014-15 they posted a pitiful 54 points or less. Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart represent the rewards for their futility. The last two seasons, however, have seen them climb into that bubble range; 81 and 78 points.

Which brings us to our next question:

When will they burst that bubble?

Offensive Ratings + Depth Chart

Each player will have two ratings: a Current and Potential rating, separated by a comma.

Sam Reinhart, for example, is a 1, F.

The 1 means he’s currently a top line player. The F means he has franchise player potential.

>> About Current and Potential Ratings

Kane 2, 1 – Eichel F+, F+ – Okposo 1, 1

Moulson 3+, 3+ – O’Reilly 1, 1 – Reinhart 1, F

Bailey 4, 3+ – Larsson 4, 3 – Pominville 2, 2

Deslauriers 4, 4 – Girgensons 3, 3v – Pouliot 3, 3+

Nylander 3+, 1 – Baptiste 4, 2?

The heart of the Sabres offense starts with these five names: Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo, and Evander Kane. Many teams, I’d imagine, would be happy with that.

But so far, it hasn’t been enough.

Which is why it’s so crucial that Eichel and Reinhart can take the next step. In truth, they are the Sabres’ best long-term pieces, acquired them with consecutive 2nd overall picks in 2014 and 2015. Kane, Okposo, and O’Reilly are veterans – you know what you get.

Eichel and Reinhart represent the rest of the development required for this team’s rebuild to finally be deemed complete and return to the playoffs. Injuries have played a part, but..

Will it be this year?

Forward Ranking: Strong (15th of 31)

Defense Ratings + Depth Chart

Scandella 2, 2 – Ristolainen F, F

McCabe 2, 1? – Bogosian 3v, 3v

Gorges 3v, 3v – Beaulieu 3, 2?

Falk D, 3

The Sabres were very clearly unimpressed with their defensive performance last year, severing ties with Dmitri Kulikov and Cody Franson while trading for Marco Scandella and Nathan Beaulieu.

By my estimation, those should be significant upgrades – not just for 2017 but also a few seasons beyond.

Other than Josh Gorges, who becomes a UFA after this season, the Sabres figure to have control over the other 5 defensemen until at least 2020.

As McCabe, Ristolainen, and Beaulieu transition from under-25 players to experienced veterans, the Sabres back line should only improve. They still need one more top piece to have a core that ranks in the top half, but for now, Sabres fans should be happy to acknowledge that at the very worst, the floor they’ve established is far from poor.

Can this group mature into a top-10 or top-15 bunch in the league?

Defense Rating: Okay (23rd of 31)

Goaltender Ratings + Depth Chart

Lehner F, F+ – Johnson 2, 2

In the summer of 2015, four goaltenders changed hands: Robin Lehner, Cam Talbot, Martin Jones, and Antti Raanta.

At the time, I thought Lehner was the very best of those, with Talbot a close second. If I ranked those acquisitions now, it’d likely be Talbot first, then Lehner, then Jones and Raanta. Raanta has talent, but has never started more than 30 games.

Lehner’s short Buffalo career has actually been very impressive. He was unfortunately injured early during his first season as a Sabre, but came back to finish the 2015-16 season with a .924 save percentage despite going 5-9-5. Great numbers in front of a mediocre team.

Then last year – his only sample that offers a full season of work – he continued to perform. Despite playing for a losing team and amassing a 23-26-8 record, he still posted a .920 save percentage. His goals against average of 2.68 wasn’t great, but in my opinion is more reflective of the leaky team in front of him. Very plainly, if he was on a team like Columbus he’d probably have a 2.20 GAA and a .926 save percentage.

Lehner is still just 26, has the prime of his career in front of him, and a young, growing team to improve with.

If I’m a Sabres fan, I have no qualms about who’s manning the pipes.

Goaltender Rating: Strong (15th of 31)

Intrigue

The Sabres clearly have a foundation to build upon. Lehner represents a franchise goalie, Ristolainen gives them an elite puck moving defenseman, and Eichel gives them a superstar center. Even better, Ryan O’Reilly is the perfect type of player to have behind someone like Eichel.

Which brings us to the wings.

With the exclusion of Sam Reinhart, who played center in junior but might be a winger in the NHL, the Sabres are relying on veteran talent to flank their centermen. Kyle Okposo’s career as a Sabre started off well, with 19 goals and 45 points over 65 games. A full season should see him return to his 60-point ways.

Then, Evander Kane.

He certainly drives shots and is definitely a ruthless forechecker. But as the focal point of a trade that saw Tyler Myers and Joel Armia go the other way, they have to find a way to maximize the asset he is. Kane is an enigma – not always sure what you’ll get.

But last year, Evander scored 28 goals in just 70 games – finally, a return to health and 25+ goals. Two things suggest a big year from the winger:

a) it’s his contract year, and I get the feeling Kane has been waiting to be a UFA his whole life. He’s going to bust his ass.

b) Buffalo’s youngsters (Eichel and Reinhart) should only improve this season.

Kane will either score 30 goals, be moved at the deadline and become an excellent playoff acquisition for someone, or he’ll get into a groove and re-sign with the Sabres. If the Sabres are unable to generate value (or a long-term commitment) from him though, it would be a mistake. They paid to get him, now they need to generate a return.

I suppose if they lose him for nothing as UFA, youngsters Alex Nylander and Casey Middlestadt could replace him over time. But Buffalo is at a critical point during their rebuild and is in no position to let top-6 talent walk for nothing.

5 Most Valuable Assets

C, Jack Eichel F+, F+

G, Robin Lehner F, F

D, Rasmus Ristolainen F, F

RW, Sam Reinhart 1, F

C, Ryan O’Reilly 1, 1

Top 3 Prospects

LW, Alex Nylander 3+, 1

C, Casey Middlestadt D, 1

D, Brendan Guhle D, 2

Prediction

The Sabres are certainly capable of surpassing this prediction. They rank 10th in the East with our model, but with no real weakness and a well-rounded team, it’s possible that they sneak their way into the playoffs. With a new coach, a revamped defense unit and hopefully a full season showcase from Jack Eichel, this team could move forward quicker than anticipated.

By the way, if Eichel does stay healthy, I like a 35 goal, 85-point season for him.

Offense: Strong (15th of 31)

Defense: Okay (23rd of 31)

Goaltending: Strong (15th of 31)

Verdict: 6th in the Atlantic Division

Playoffs: Maaaaaybe this year. Small improvements through the natural development curve of the team could be all that’s required for this team to take the next step. If this year doesn’t workout though, I’d imagine next year should be their year.

You can find the rest of our Franchise Previews here.

Written by hockeythoughts.ca