Winnipeg Jets Season Preview: Offence
At first glance, last season didn’t seem so good.
In late February we sold off our only Captain in Andrew Ladd for a pick and a prospect. By early March, it was obvious the playoffs were no longer possible (unless we traded for Andrew Hammond), and we had failed to build off of our first rendition of the Winnipeg White-Out that captivated the entire hockey world a year prior.
Yet anyone who followed the team closely saw that last season was just another step up the ladder to success throughout the organization.
The Jets ended the 2015 season on a fantastic note, finishing 6-2-2 in their last 10 games. The line of Nik Ehlers, Mark Scheifele, and Blake Wheeler tore it up, combining for 36 points in those 10 games. Late season winning streaks rarely mean a thing for the next season. But considering how much more Scheifele and Ehlers still have to grow as players, it’s hard to pinpoint just exactly how dangerous they’ll be.
Down on the farm and through the junior ranks, first year pros such as Josh Morrissey, Nic Petan, Chase De Leo, and Eric Comrie all had strong seasons in Manitoba, and the 2015 draft’s first round pick in Kyle Connor was having a Jack Eichel-type of freshman season south of the border. If you factor in the young players already in the NHL: Scheifele, Trouba, Ehlers, Hellebuyck, Lowry, and Copp, and it looked like the Jets were only adding to a barracks of young talent that would be offering reinforcements for years to come.
Then on April 30th, 2016, the franchise changed forever. The Jets were gifted the rights to the second overall pick in the 2016 draft, otherwise known as 6’4″ goalscorer Patrik Laine.
Nearly two months later, in late June, the Jets added a franchise winger to an already remarkable set of prospects. With a strong leadership group already in place, this offence is quickly morphing into a juggernaut.
The Core
Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Nik Ehlers, Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault, and Drew Stafford represent the core that the rest of the players will fit in around this season. The first four expect to be cemented in the top 6, while Stafford will offer some flexibility: a veteran presence on a young scoring line (say Connor-Perreault-Stafford), or as a two way goal scorer on a checking line. Perreault also offers a lot of versatility as a playmaking left wing or center iceman; he’s among the best passers on the team and is a tenacious fore checker who doesn’t let his lack of size hinder his ability to scoop out the puck along the boards.
While the combinations are endless, using those 6 core players in pairs of two would give the Jets 3 very balanced lines, with plenty of NHL caliber talent to fit in around them.
Consider:
______ – Scheifele – Wheeler
Ehlers – Little – ______
______- Perreault – Stafford
With the skeleton of your team setup like that, it’s very easy to slot Kyle Connor alongside Scheif and Wheeler, pop Patrik Laine to the right of Little, and have Armia, Dano, Burmistrov, Lowry, or Copp give a number of different looks on the third line. Copp played on the wing for a portion of the preseason and if Maurice wanted him to flank Perreault and Stafford, it would give a very responsible look to that tandem while still possessing the skill to capitalize on goal scoring opportunities.
While Ehlers is still a little raw on the defensive side of things, all of those combinations have enough defensive awareness to give Maurice a lot of flexibility with line matching, allowing him to pick on the opposition’s weaker players with relative ease.
You should expect monstrous years from both Wheeler and Scheifele. Wheeler figures to easily net over 70 points, and flirt with 80 (he had 78 last year), and for Scheifele it’s all about the goals. The kid’s release is powerful, quick, and ridiculously accurate, and 35 goals seems a reasonable benchmark for him, with (dare I say it) a chance he considers netting 40. Over the last 46 games Scheifele finished with 48 points, including 21 goals. That’s plenty enough of a sample size for me – this kid is going to be a star (if he isn’t already) – and it’s hard to predict just how high his ceiling is.
Paul Maurice is looking at incredible offensive depth, and I bet he has at least 14 whiteboards in his office that are overflowing with line combinations.
The Depth
As early as next year, I hope to confidently add Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine to the “Core” group up above. However, having played a combination of precisely zero games in the NHL, they are going to be easily shifted among the team’s 12 forwards, and it’s even possible that they’ll be the odd man out on certain nights. For this season, they’re just pieces to the team, boasting the potential for explosive and dynamic plays at any time. Which of course, sounds good to me.
It’s hard to even choose who else to put in here, which is a nod to the Jets’ fantastic drafting record. I count 15 players within the organization who are either NHL players, or whom I think are capable of being tested regularly at the NHL level. That’s a lot of players for 8 remaining roster spots.
The higher you are, the more likely I think it is that you’ll start the season on the Jets roster:
- Shawn Matthias
- Andrew Copp
- Adam Lowry
- Kyle Connor
- Patrik Laine
- Brandon Tanev
- Joel Armia
- Alex Burmistrov
- Marko Dano
- Chris Thorburn
- Nic Petan
- Chase De Leo
- Scott Kosmachuk
- J.C. Lipon
- Quinton Howden
Shawn Matthias was signed for a reason: our penalty kill stinks, and he is a capable defensive forward who has the speed to match the rest of the organization. Copp in my opinion has supplanted Lowry as the team’s “future third line center” as he has more apparent puck skills. Brandon Tanev is having a dynamite preseason thus far, and I look very favorably at a Tanev – Copp – Matthias combination to harass the opposing defenders. Get that line out against the opposition’s bottom pairing and they’ll have trouble leaving their own zone.
Patrik Laine, while owning all of the tools and potential in the world, still looks a little bit hesitant to me in his decision making. It’s up to Paul Maurice to decide whether he best learns that in the NHL or with the Moose, but a 5 or 10 game start in the farm I don’t think would be a bad thing at all.
Thus, we are left with Burmistrov, Armia, Dano, and Thorburn competing for the 13th and 14th forward spots, assuming we carry two extra forwards. All of those players would have to pass through waivers if they don’t make the team, so Maurice and Chevyldayoff will be having plenty of discussions to make sure no assets are lost for nothing.
The Jets should have a very fluid lineup this season, as I expect Petan, De Leo, Kosmachuk, and Lipon all to make appearances with the big club this season.
Person of Interest – Nik Ehlers
Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler: stars.
Kyle Connor, Patrik Laine: future stars.
Nik Ehlers? Breakout candidate, and future (current?) star.
Someone needs to talk right now about just how skilled and intelligent Nik Ehlers is. I figured it may as well be me.
Put simply, the Danish winger is the most electrifying player the Jets have ever drafted, and likely the most creative as well. Anyone watching the Jets with regularity can point out that Ehlers has a unique level of flair and skill he’s implemented into his game; his keenness for faking slap shots while flying down the wing is a tool no one else uses often. Combine that with his unique skating stride where he positions his stick slightly toward his back foot and exposes the puck in the center, and it gives defenders a nightmare they haven’t dreamed of. Ehlers’ shot is deceptive and accurate and he is able to raise the puck from incredibly tight areas in order to go short-side-shelf on the over-sized goaltenders of today, increasing the threat of the cross seam pass (which he made to Scheifele Monday night in Ottawa). He has a desire to create, and he’s got the skill set to do it.
The speed that Ehlers plays and processes the game with allows his imagination and creativity to come to the forefront, as he is incredibly difficult to knock off the puck when he comes at you with full speed. I put a lot of stock into how often players are able to carry the puck over the opposition’s blue, and as Ehlers continues to get stronger and more mature, he may become one of the game’s best in that regard. He’s that good.
Ehlers figures to play alongside Scheifele and Wheeler, and also get reps with Little and Perreault. He really is a dynamic piece that Maurice can add to any offensive line, and boasts the flexibility of playing either wing, though he is more comfortable on the right.
To finish last year’s season, Ehlers played over 19 minutes in 12 of the last 16 games. In the last 35 games, he put up 26 points. The signs are all there: the trust of Paul Maurice, a deadly line combination, and enough depth that even if he doesn’t line up primarily with Scheif, he will still have more than capable linemates.
If Ehlers can stay healthy, he looks a sure bet for 25 goals and 60 points, with room for more. If you play fantasy hockey, don’t let him escape you. Ehlers is ranked 213th by Yahoo, sandwiched between Mattias Ekholm and Matt Moulson. I can assure you he will outperform both of those players and will finish as a top 100 fantasy player.
Predicted Opening Day Lineup
Connor – Scheifele – Wheeler
Ehlers- Little – Armia
Stafford – Perreault – Laine
Matthias – Copp – Lowry
disclaimer: I am probably wrong
Stay tuned for part two featuring the Jets defence!
